Where next for UK agriculture?

UK agriculture is entering a period of profound adjustment as direct subsidies are withdrawn and government policy appears increasingly disengaged from food security. While many sectors are experiencing volatility, it is important to recognise that food production remains a strategic necessity.

Although recent harvests and commodity prices have been unfavourable for combinable crops, other sectors—particularly beef, sheep, pig, and egg production—are demonstrating resilience. Their relative success is largely due to supply-side constraints, restricted imports and thus strengthened domestic markets. These industries also carry significant barriers to entry, including regulation, disease and capital expenditure, which limit expansion but expose businesses to higher risk. Having long operated without substantial subsidy support, they have advanced through technology, genetics and management innovation.

By contrast, the combinable crop sector is challenged by the economics of producing globally traded commodities from a structurally high-cost base. Without the protection of subsidies, profitability will depend on either differentiating products to command premium prices or driving substantial efficiency gains. This will require greater application of advanced technologies, genetic innovation, and improved soil and plant management, while adapting to regulatory demands and climate change. The long-term shift may favour biological rather than purely chemical solutions.

At its foundation, crop farming is a process of converting solar energy and water into carbohydrates through photosynthesis, with outputs marketed as grain, oilseed, forage, or straw. Value can be further enhanced by processing these into animal protein. The strategic priority must be to maximise the yield and value of these outputs, while aligning production systems with market demand.

The sector must therefore embrace structural change. Lessons from unsubsidised industries show that adaptation, innovation, and efficiency are essential. Those willing to reform business models and adopt new technologies will be best positioned for long-term competitiveness.